Introducing Projection Pathway: Turning insight into action

Introducing Projection Pathway 

Many schools already make judgements about where pupils are likely to end the year. These projections are arrived at via professional discussions, comparisons with previous cohorts, or informal tracking. In this way, leaders and teachers are constantly building a picture of what pupil outcomes may look like and can consequently direct their attention where it is needed most.

Projection Pathway brings that complex process into a single, structured view within Sonar, making it easier to capture, refine and act on those insights over time. 

A more informed view of pupil outcomes

Projection Pathway brings together key sources of information, including:

• Previous summative assessment data 

• Current baseline and in-year assessment data

• Latest available test information

• Previous statutory assessment information

This gives teachers a clearer and more evidence-informed basis for making their end-of-year projections, making sure that these judgements are not isolated, but very much part of a wider picture of how a pupil is progressing.

In this way, instead of relying on a single data point, end-of-year projections are grounded in what is known about a pupil at that moment in time, helping schools build a more complete and accurate view of progress over time. 

Targets and projections: what’s the difference? 

Targets and projections serve different purposes. 

Targets are typically aspirational. They represent what a pupil is working towards and are often set at a fixed point in time. A projection, by contrast, reflects the current, evidence-informed view of what is likely to happen based on what is known now. 

As circumstances change, whether through progress, gaps in learning, or attendance, projections can and should change too. This makes them a more responsive measure, grounded in current performance rather than intended outcomes. 

Why this matters now

This focus on making projections more visible and evidence-informed reflects the wider direction of travel across the sector. Recent national policy, including the Schools White Paper Every Child Achieving and Thriving, places increasing emphasis on early identification of need, inclusive practice, and decisions that can be clearly evidenced and justified.

Schools are being asked not only to understand where pupils are now, but to demonstrate how they are responding to emerging needs over time (and crucially, to evidence this).

In this context, having a clearer, more structured view of likely outcomes, grounded in multiple sources of assessment evidence, supports schools to act earlier, strengthen consistency, and ensure that professional judgement is both informed and defensible.

Supporting practice, not adding to it 

For many schools, projecting end of year outcomes is already part of how schools plan and aim to improve those outcomes, and it is important to be clear that Projection Pathway does not introduce a new requirement. It is a feature that is providing a more consistent and visible way to capture what many schools are already doing (making end-of-year projections based on a wealth of recent data) and surfacing it alongside other data-informed judgements.

Having this work captured in‑app also enables schools to use the reports area more effectively, supporting quick analysis of projected outcomes and early identification of pupils who may need additional support. 

For schools that choose to use it, Projection Pathway can support:

• Earlier identification of need
• More informed comparisons
• Better-informed conversations
• Ongoing visibility

For many schools, this replaces informal processes, such as spreadsheets or ad hoc tracking, rather than adding something new. Schools can choose whether and when to use this feature and it is something that can support practice where it is helpful. 

Built into Sonar, not added on 

Projection Pathway sits within a dedicated area in Sonar Tracker, separate from statutory assessment points and it is very much there to use where schools decide it adds value.

Within the pathway, schools can:

• Anticipate likely outcomes with greater clarity
• Identify potential risk earlier
• Keep projections visible and up to date across the year
• Use evidence to inform next steps

Read-only prior attainment data is also visible to provide context without requiring additional input, while optional copy-forward features support efficiency for teachers where appropriate.

Designed around real school practice 

The feature reflects how schools operate day-to-day:

• Dynamic views ensure only relevant prior data is shown for each year group
• Projections can be informed by the most recent available data at any point in the year
• Coverage includes core, foundation and bespoke subjects

This ensures pupils’ projections remain practical, flexible and rooted in a teacher’s own professional judgement.

 Turning insight into action

Projection Pathway supports a shift from simply recording attainment to actively shaping outcomes (and doing this over time).

By making current understanding of pupil performance more visible to teachers and leaders (and thus easier to act on) it helps schools to respond earlier, with greater confidence and clarity about the most meaningful interventions moving forward. It also aligns with the growing expectation for earlier, evidence-informed decisions that can be clearly understood and justified.

Used where it adds value, Projection Pathway strengthens the link between insight and action, supporting schools to focus effort where it will make the greatest difference for pupils.