Introduction
The deadline for this year’s Budget Forecast Return (BFR) is Thursday 24th September 2026. If your academy trust was open on 1st May, the DfE will be expecting a return, which must be signed off by the accounting officer before submission.
By now, most trusts will be familiar with the BFR process. The part that can be challenging isn't necessarily completing the return itself, but making sure the assumptions and figures behind it are still right.
September is a key point in the year for checking your forecast. You have a clearer picture of pupil numbers, staffing has started to settle, and you now have the previous year’s actual figures to work with.
With just over two weeks until the deadline, here are some areas worth taking another look at before you submit.
Pupil Numbers
Pupil numbers feed into many areas of the return, so this is a good place to start.
Your original budget will have been based on estimated pupil numbers. You should now have a much clearer picture, and it’s unlikely that the actual numbers will be exactly the same as your original assumptions.
Check that the pupil numbers included in your BFR reflect what has actually happened, including any in-year growth, falling rolls in particular year groups and changes to your SEND and disadvantaged cohorts.
For future years, make sure you are comfortable with the assumptions behind your pupil number projections and how confident you are in them.
Staffing
Staff costs are usually the largest part of a trust’s budget, so September is a good time to revisit the assumptions you made earlier in the year.
Take another look at:
- appointments and resignations since the budget was approved
- current vacancies and how realistic your recruitment assumptions are
- restructures that have been agreed, are underway or are being considered
- pay pressures, including teachers’ and support staff pay awards and pay progression
Don’t forget to check the timing of any changes too. A restructure taking effect in January will have a very different impact on this year’s budget compared with one taking effect in September.
Income
Review your income forecasts and make sure all income streams have been included at the right level.
This includes General Annual Grant, Pupil Premium, high needs funding and other DfE or local authority grants, as well as traded services, lettings, catering and any other income generated by the trust.
There are also some changes to this year’s return. Investment income now has its own line, and there are two new questions around top-slicing and the pooling of grants across the trust.
If your central team recovers costs from academies, make sure the information you provide in the return accurately reflects how this operates in practice.
Variances From the Approved Budget
Your trustees approved a budget based on the information and assumptions available at the time. Things will have changed since then, so your BFR should reflect where the trust is now, rather than where you expected to be back in June.
Work through your significant variances and make sure they have all been reflected in your forecast.
A useful test is to ask yourself: if this variance was significant enough for trustees to want to know about, is it significant enough to be included in the BFR?
Reserves and Financial Sustainability
The DfE continues to pay close attention to reserves, and the 2026 return includes additional questions for trusts holding reserves between 0% and 20% of income.
Make sure you can clearly explain any planned use of reserves and what those reserves are being used for.
It is also worth looking beyond the current year. If your budget balances this year by using reserves, but a similar deficit appears again in the following years, that is something that needs addressing.
It is much better to have that conversation with your board now than wait for the DfE to ask the question.
Review and Sign-off
The accounting officer is required to confirm that the return is supported by appropriate working papers and that it is accurate and complete.
That means allowing enough time for a proper review before the deadline. Make sure your governing body is comfortable with both the forecast figures and the assumptions behind them.
Submission
The online form is already open, so if your numbers are ready, there is little benefit in waiting until the last few days.
Submitting at the last minute can leave you dealing with unexpected queries, missing sign-offs or a slower system while everyone else is trying to submit too.
If everything is ready, submitting a week early means one less thing to worry about at the end of September.
The DfE’s full guidance on completing the BFR is available on GOV.UK.
